Monsoon Surge With Flash Flooding Possible
Submitted by Carol A. Clark
A monsoon moisture surge with flash flooding and possible main stem river rises is likely to occur between now and the end of Tuesday. Storms will have the potential to produce up to 2 inches of rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and hail.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque reports a very moist, unstable atmosphere is in place over New Mexico and will get a boost through Tuesday as a strong front moves into the area. The heaviest rainfall is expected to focus along and east of the Continental Divide through Tuesday.
- Slow moving and repeated thunderstorms will result in locally heavy rainfall with flash flooding possible, especially in areas that have already seen heavy rain the past several days.
- Some storms will have the potential to produce up to 2 inches of rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and hail. Locally higher amounts are likely through Tuesday Night.
- Wildfire burn scar areas, the east slopes of the central mountain chain, and urban drainages will see the greatest threat for flooding.
- Widespread heavy rainfall over northern and eastern NM through the multi-day period may result in significant rises on main stem rivers and their tributaries, particularly within the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A hydrologic outlook has been issued outlining this potential in more detail: click here.
Abundant moisture will continue surging across the state through Tuesday. A strong front moving southwest across the state Monday morning and weak steering flow will result in locally heavy rainfall. Flash flooding will be possible, along with subsequent main stem and tributary rises.
Moderate to high confidence on timing and location.
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